2023 NFL win totals for AFC North and AFC South Kenny Pickett and Steelers are great value Jaguars roll
2023 NFL win totals for AFC North and AFC South Kenny Pickett and Steelers are great value Jaguars roll
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season win totals dropped way back in March (what a time to be alive!) and I went through every single division then, looking at my favorite immediate bets. There's a lot more clarity now after offseason roster moves are largely done, contracts are mostly signed Chris Webber Jersey and we know what we're getting ... at least until we don't after the season starts.There's a pick for every single team, plus a look at our SportsLine projection model simulations, but if I actually believe a team is worth betting on I'll include a note.. AFC North and AFC South are below.Before we get to the over/under picks ... can we talk about fans? What a weird fanbase! They've been (mostly) intensely loyal to and Andrew Luck which is like being very excited about having to drive your Porsche and Ferrari. could be AWESOME. I hope he unlocks every physical skill set he has so we can enjoy watching it unfold. But goodne s gracious can you guys please, please, stop leaping off the top rope to defend Jim Irsay?He owns a football team. He owns lots of guitars. He probably isn't well liked if the Colts don't stumble into Peyton Manning and Andrew Luck back-to-back because the Colts aren't winning as much as they did over the last 20+ years. There have been four free spaces in Bingo over the last 40 years, the Colts got two of them and won a single . By all means keep praising the dude who hired Jeff Saturday and routinely undermines his widely respected GM. It's probably going to keep accidentally working out well! To the win totals!Over 11.5 (+110) / Under (-140)SportsLine Projection Model: 10.6First things first: you can get a 10.5 win total at (-130) at DraftKings Sportsbook and that's just a better bet than 11.5. Call me square, tell me I'm a dummy for taking the juice ... and if the Bengals win 11 games do not talk to me. I'd go the 11.5 in a heartbeat if I knew wasn't dealing with a calf injury. Cincy's offense has started slow the last few years because of Burrow injuries and I'm a little nervous they do the same this year and lean on and get a game stolen from them. Defensively they're good. is a ma sive plus. The wideouts are ridiculous and Burrow is . No chance I'm fading the Bengals this season.Brinson's pick: Bengals over 10.5 wins (DraftKings)Over 9.5 (-170) / Under (+145)SportsLine Projection Model: 9.6 winsThere's no way you can bet on the Ravens over at this price, even with 17 games. If gets hurt or the offense stumbles at all -- and I don't think it will but there's a lot of new skill-position guys and a new OC -- it makes getting to 10-7 much tougher. The Ravens are mi sing pa s rushers and they're mi sing depth in the defensive backfield. I'd bet over 10.5 before I bet over 9.5 here, even though I love Baltimore this year as a whole with the Todd Monken addition and what he could bring to this offense. Greg Roman changed things but it got stale -- the last time Baltimore upended things was 2019 and it worked out quite nicely. Brinson's pick: Ravens over 9.5 winsOver 9.0 (-115) / Under (-105)SportsLine Projection Model: 7.6 winsYou want to talk about an over smash? The Steelers are ripe for a ton of reasons. To s the "no losing record" thing out the window -- Mike Tomlin is a really good head coach who motivates his players. There's a slew of veterans on defense and a healthy equals problems for other offenses. has this preseason in a very Steelers gritty/winner kind of way. The physical tools aren't there like the elite guys but Pickett wins at every level. is a freaking problem man. The offensive line is retooled. The Steelers are being slept on big time, especially with a 9-8 push po sibility (severely underrated when talking win totals because of how rare it is).Brinson pick: Steelers over 9.0 winsOver 9.5 (+110) / Under 9.5 (-130)SportsLine Projection Model: 7.6 winsSuggesting the Browns won't be GREAT will get you yelled at, at least until the unnamed radio host (hint: it's Ken Carmen of 92.3 the Fan in Cleveland) kowtows and admits 10 wins is a tough ask. This is a deep roster and while defenses under Jim Schwartz haven't nece sarily thrived in his first year, he blitzes like a maniac and is very aggre sive. The Browns have the personnel for that. The offensive line looks strong and the weapons are -- as the kids say -- "mad dece"? The i sue is . Is he gonna be great? IF so the Browns should be a borderline favorite here. Is he way le s than mad dece? Then the Browns are a long shot at best for the AFC North. Watch this one and how Deshaun plays early because there could be early-season betting opps available.(I can neither confirm nor deny whether Ken confirmed or denied such speculation but it's fun to imagine him agitated by tweets about this.) Brinson's pick: Browns under 9 Maurice Cheeks Jersey .5 winsOver 10.0 (+122) / Under 10.0 (-140)SportsLine Projection Model: 9.6 winsI understand the juice/line move here -- 9.5 is too low. But I want 10 wins with plus money knowing a push is actually a 10-cent win and 11 wins -- very doable for this team -- is a cruise-control victory. is going nuclear this season, betting on him to throw for 5,000 yards is a good look, just like the Jags being the No. 1 AFC seed is a strong bet. They have by far the weakest division and a much easier schedule than the other competition. To s your parlay jokes int he trash with your bad bet tickets, because is a stud who will only make Lawrence much, much better, while shifting to the WR2 role. The Jags are loaded on offense suddenly. The defensive might be great but it's got enough pa s rush to contain the divisional quarterbacks.Brinson's pick: Jaguars over 10.0 winsOver 7.5 (-120) / Under (+100)SportsLine Projection Model: 7.6 winsVery, very tricky team to deal with. The numbers hate the Titans and so does anyone with a couple eyeballs and acce s to a depth chart. On the other hand ... Mike Vrabel? He's legitimately that good a coach where he will swing 1-2 games per year (longer story but hey billionaires there's no cap for coaches). and are both well below everyone's radar, which is where this group likes it.Brinson's pick: Titans under 7.5 winsIndianapolis ColtsOver 6.5 (-115) / Under (-105)SportsLine Projection Model: 6.2 winsThere will be Colts fans who -- while not doing something as pathetic as searching the internet to find out how tall I am (spoiler: not very) -- will claim I'm fading Indy out of spite. Normally I wouldn't blame them, as I'm a spiteful person. But I'm not in this case! Instead I'm fading the Colts because of Jim Irsay! I'm intrigued by the plenty of things when it comes to the Colts. (I also freaking love the city of Indianapolis, even if really hot shrimp sauce is a bizarre signature food to corner.) Anthony Richardson is a FREAK, man. If he harne ses his arm and improves his accuracy on short/intermediate throws, the ceiling is limitle s. Shane Steichen got the absolute most out of while working with Nick Sirriani in Philadelphia. How can you not find his offensive mind coupled with Richardson appealing? I'm just not sure it will work well out of the box -- even if we get rookie year in Carolina as a best case, we're talking about a team that won six games, with a much better defense than the one in Indy. Shaq Leonard coming back healthy would be a gamechanger for sure, but Gus Bradley's holdover scheme has me concerned. The offensive line needs to revert back to its previous form as well, and getting in camp and happy would go a long way toward helping everyone. Brinson's pick: Colts under 6.5 winsOver 6.5 (+125) / Under 6.5 (-150)SportsLine Projection Model: 7.8 winsThe Texans bandwagon is lonely -- if you're interested in jumping on I've got extra tickets! I am not a huge guy so this is a little conflicting for me, because I really want to like Houston this year. is in his first stop as a head coach, making it impo sible to know for sure how he'll do. But by all accounts he's legitimately changing the culture there. Count me in on DeMeco the head coach! getting hurt is a big concern for Stroud's protection, but I like the veteran additions this team made in terms of helping the young QB out, snagging and (their succe s would be worth it just to see Jerry Jones triggered), plus to complement . Defensively they did something similar, scooping up veteran guys like and (obviously familiar with Ryans). I might not agree with what they traded away (a future first) to move back up in this year's draft but Will Anderson will certainly help the defense right away. Jimmy Butler Jersey The two games between the Colts/Texans probably determines which one of these teams goes over and which one goes under. I'll happily grab the hefty plus money here.Brinson's pick: Texans over 6.5 wins
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